Housing Supply Solutions

Charlotte just turned every homeowner in the city into a potential infill developer. The city is offering up to $80,000 in forgivable loans to build accessory dwelling units. Interest-free financing, forgiven at $10,000 per year over eight years if you rent it affordably. Home prices in Charlotte have surged 72% since 2017. Only 8% of rentals are considered affordable. Instead of waiting for big developers to solve it, Charlotte is deputizing homeowners to add density one backyard at a time. The deal: Build a granny flat (max 1,000 square feet if detached). Rent it to someone making under 80% of area median income. Keep rent below market rate. The loan disappears over time. If homeowners rent to housing voucher holders and they forgive it faster at $15,000 per year. Charlotte is betting that thousands of small-scale housing additions beat waiting for a handful of large apartment complexes. Homeowners build wealth through rental income. Neighborhoods get affordable units without changing the street character. California now gets 20% of all new homes from ADU construction. Multiple states have lifted restrictions. Most cities treat development like something only professionals should do. Charlotte is handing regular homeowners $80,000 and saying "you're a developer now, go build housing."

If the next President invited you to join a task force setting rental housing policy to increase supply and improve affordability, what would you advise? I asked this question to two men who belong on such a task force – David Brickman and Hugh Frater, the former CEOs of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, respectively. I learned a ton from both of them (and you can see/hear their full answers on the most recent two episodes of The Rent Roll podcast). Here are 5 (out of many) highlights. 1) Empower Fannie and Freddie to provide construction capital. Today, the GSEs can only lend on stabilized apartments, not new construction. Frater said: “Where the federal government can help is lowering the cost of capital and ensuring more projects will pencil.” Brickman proposes allowing the GSEs to offer a construction-to-permanent loan program. Others (like Bob Simpson) have proposed a hybrid structure where the GSEs could inject preferred equity to help close the financing gap. 2) Protect Fannie and Freddie from politicization and scope creep through new operational requirements (i.e. rent control) attached to loans. Brickman said it “could start to push some borrowers away, and that undermines the potential effect” of the GSEs in encouraging supply. Brickman pointed out a comparison point on the single-family mortgage side with FHA loans, where some lenders won’t offer them due to concerns about potential compliance issues and risk of “getting on the wrong side of the government.” Frater, for his part, noted that it’s not unfair to attach some reasonable requirements to federal subsidies, but the risk of installing policy platforms through the GSEs “is an argument for getting them out of conservatorship.” 3) Brickman proposed establishing a model to renovate aging apartments (including expiring tax credit deals) while preserving affordability. Today, investors have limited options with older apartments. If you renovate it to modern standards, you risk displacing residents. If you don’t renovate it, you risk being labeled an “absentee landlord.” 4) Focus on programs that create more affordable and workforce housing. Brickman suggested expanding LIHTC to include moderate-income workforce housing and also providing federal support to state and local affordable housing preservation/creation programs. Frater said any new programs should be simple, useable, deficit neutral and focused on supply. 5) Reform existing programs to maximize the impact. Frater called out leakage in Section 8 vouchers plus city approval processes that drive up costs to build housing. “Our objective should be to maximize the number of units produced per dollar of tax credit. That might mean in some places, like California, that unless they change their permitting and approval requirements, there may not be housing built.” There's a ton more in each of the two podcast episodes (links in comments). Deeply grateful for Hugh and David, and I hope our next leaders heed their guidance.

Sears sold houses from catalogs in 1900. Oregon just brought back the strategy that could end the housing crisis. Here’s why it could change everything: HB 2258 went through. A near-unanimous approval. Modern apartment buildings get criticized for looking the same. But still, each project gets designed from scratch. The result? Risk and cost without higher quality. The problem with housing development today: • If the project isn't approved, that money is lost • Small developers front well over $100,000 before raising a dollar • Capital invested before approval typically comes out of the developer's pocket Keeping small developers out of missing middle housing. Oregon cracked the code with pre-approved housing catalogs. Here’s how: 1/ Pattern books: • Pick from the catalog, start building • Cities must publish pre-approved designs • Up to 11 units or 20,000 square feet get ministerial approval Cookie-cutter by design. 2/ Historical precedent: • Sears sold kit homes from catalogs • Complete packages delivered in two to six weeks • Criticized for "mechanical, dehumanizing monotony" This isn't new at all. 3/ De-risking development: • Errors in plans had long since been removed • Layouts had been iterated upon and optimized • Designs called for readily-available, inexpensive materials • No convoluted review process No convoluted review process is the real innovation. Why this works: • Architects and contractors already have the skills and connections • They just lack the risk capital and appetite for discretionary approval • An architect bringing down $175,000 per year won't risk low six figures Pattern books eliminate the biggest uncertainty. The timeline: • Oregon's Department of Consumer and Business Services develops the plans • Cities have until January 1, 2027 to adopt • New housing won't see the market until mid-to-late 2028 at earliest Other states should look to this as a model The bigger picture: If HB 2258 works as planned? It could serve as a national model for streamlining multi‑family housing approvals. Reducing costs, and accelerating supply.

Small Bets, Big Momentum: Ground-Floor Economics Great housing is supported by great ground floors. Not spectacle. Daily life. Small, repeatable projects work best when the first 1,000 square feet stabilize the building and the block. The question What happens when we design and lease ground floors for everyday uses that residents and neighbors touch each week? Why it works Retention improves. Errands downstairs reduce churn upstairs. NOI stabilizes. Reliable operators with steady demand beat speculative concepts. Street life gets safer. Lights on, doors open, people around. Leasing risk drops. Short buildouts and simple TI reduce downtime between tenants. What it looks like at a high level -A small-bay kit: 600–1,200 SF bays that split or combine. -Back-of-house that works: venting, sinks, storage, trash, delivery path. -Clear fronts: glass, lighting, and signage that feel local. -Uses that serve weekly needs: childcare, clinic, pharmacy pickup, coffee, prepared foods, copy/print, lockers, laundry, repair. Simple moves, not heavy lifts -Pop-up to permanent. Short test leases with a path to 3–5 years. -Shared back-of-house. Common mop sink, grease interceptor, delivery zone. -Quiet hours and logistics. Codify loading, trash, and noise in the lease. Signals to watch -Resident renewal rate vs. buildings without ground-floor services. -Days-vacant between commercial tenants. -Sales per square foot and foot-traffic trend, even if estimated. -Service tickets tied to ground-floor impacts (noise, trash) trending down. Reframe The ground floor is not a mystery box. It is a utility layer for neighborhood life. When it works, housing performance follows. Where the creativity goes Curate one local partner per block. Invite community use after hours. Use color, planting, and seating to make a small storefront feel generous. Who this helps Small developers aiming for steady portfolios. Faith and school campuses adding gentle density with mission-aligned tenants. GCs who prefer simple, repeatable buildouts. Lenders who value predictable income and low downtime. A next step you can take this week Walk your target block at 7 a.m., noon, and 7 p.m. Write the five errands you see people doing elsewhere. Design one bay to serve two of them. Share the sketch with a local operator and your GC. Let’s turn everyday uses into steady momentum.

In times of housing crisis, 'build, build, build' is a very tempting motto, but the results of recent years show that this is not always the solution. Too few new homes are being developed, even fewer are being built sustainably, and even 'affordable' homes are out of reach for many people. The Platform Woonopgave's Action Agenda consists of ten points aimed at tackling the Dutch housing crisis in an affordable, sustainable, fair, and future-proof way. The collective asks simple but crucial questions that create opportunities for linking: Who needs the homes? Where should they be built? What about future demand? What adjustments can be made to the existing building stock? How much new construction is really needed? This led to the 10 points Action Agenda to address the housing crisis: 1. Find homes before building new 🔎 "1 to 2 million homes can be 'found' by redistributing existing (living) space through house division, transformation, renovation, plot division and topping." 2. Affordable housing for all, now and later 🏡 "What the government defines as 'affordable' is unaffordable with an average income: for an 'affordable' home of €390,000 (!) more than two salaries are needed." 3. Do not demolish but repair 🔁 "Renovating instead of demolishing is more 'sustainable' than 'sustainable' construction." 4. Make new buildings healthy and sustainable ❤️🩹 "There are many great examples of bio-based building, recycled materials and nitrogen-free construction methods. A sustainable home is a healthy home." 5. Build in neighbourhoods, not in nature ❌🌱 "The costs for suburban construction seem lower, but due to additional costs for infrastructure and climate damage, they are ultimately much higher." 6. Anticipate the future, right now 🔮 "We must now anticipate the suitability of the soil in 50 years, sea level rise or flooding that meet future housing needs." 7. Prioritize values over financial profit 📉 "The housing challenge is now mainly one-sidedly financially driven and is seen too much as a real estate challenge. An integrated social approach is lacking." 8. Prioritize residents & quality of life 🪩 "In the emphasis on numbers and speed, the need for a 'good' home has been completely forgotten." 9. Make room for research & experiment 🧪 "While the composition of the population and households is becoming increasingly diverse, homes have become standard products. We need creativity and experimentation." 10. Make public housing great again! 🥇 "Inequality within the current housing system is increasing. While (young) people are forced to pay too high rent in the private sector, others have money to make their owner-occupied home more sustainable." What if we reformulate the task: Instead of 'building 1 million homes', 'creating 1 million places to live'? What are your thoughts? #housingcrisis #regeneration #living #housing #architecture tijntjoelker.substack.com 💌

Living near your best friends after college isn't immature. It's the smartest housing decision you'll make. You need to build for it, not age out of it. Once you do, you unlock community most people only dream about. Here's how Phil Levin turned this idea into $70M in pipeline: Most people think living near friends is something you age out of after senior year of college. Phil Levin thought that was backwards. So he gathered 20 adults and kids to live within walking distance. Not a commune or co-living. Just intentional proximity. Now he's scaling it with Live Near Friends. Phil's been writing about this idea since 2020. For three years, there was modest traction. Then the audience exploded. His theory: the pandemic made everyone rethink how they wanted to live. Remote work isolates us. Screen time distracts us. And yet, we’re craving the opposite. But we’re all too busy to figure out the “how.” The validation came fast: A single TikTok post drew 13,000 comments. Then the money: $70M in projects in the Bay Area in a matter of weeks. Instead of writing a business plan, Phil lived it. He spent four years testing the model with his family. Proof of concept, then he built the company. Two groups want this badly: • Young families (dual-income, time-strapped, dreading the suburbs alone) • Women 55-75 with equity who want real community and connection Both are hungry for housing that starts with people, not the property. Live Near Friends isn't about giving up privacy. You keep your own home. You're just choosing to be near the people you'd call at a moment's notice. That changes everything: • Kids play outside freely • Parents share the load • Dinners happen spontaneously Real belonging. The village model, reimagined. Phil's learned something important. Real estate can build real brands. And those brands translate directly into returns. But the brand has to stand for something real. Staged photos don't work. The founder has to embody it. Phil literally lives with his friends. That personal story resonates far more than any marketing. Phil spoke at Blueprint on the innovation stage. We discussed how creative real estate models solve human problems, not just building problems. The most disruptive play isn't always technology. Sometimes it's just remembering that people need people.

Innovative ideas for living spaces today are transforming the way we interact with our homes by blending design ingenuity with cutting-edge technology. Architects and interior designers are increasingly incorporating multifunctional furniture and modular layouts to optimize space in compact urban homes—think beds that fold into walls, coffee tables that convert into desks, or entire rooms that can be reconfigured using movable partitions. Smart home systems are becoming the backbone of modern living spaces, enabling residents to control lighting, temperature, security, and even appliances through voice commands or mobile apps. Sustainable materials like bamboo, recycled plastic, and reclaimed wood are being used not just for aesthetic appeal, but to reduce environmental impact. Biophilic design is gaining momentum, integrating natural elements such as vertical gardens, indoor water features, and large windows to enhance mental well-being. In luxury and futuristic homes, augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) are being used to preview interior changes before implementation, while 3D printing is beginning to revolutionize how entire houses are built, offering affordable and customizable structures. The integration of solar panels, rainwater harvesting systems, and AI-driven energy efficiency tools demonstrates how smart #technology can align with eco-conscious living. Altogether, these innovative approaches are not only redefining comfort and style but also pushing the boundaries of what living spaces can achieve in terms of adaptability, sustainability, and user-centric functionality. Feel free to share your thoughts 💭

Prefabricated houses as a potential solution for the US housing shortage? The U.S. housing market continues to grapple with a significant shortage, driving up costs and limiting accessibility for many. While traditional construction methods face challenges like labor scarcity and material costs, an innovative solution gaining global traction lies in prefabricated and modular homes. Some manufacturers have leveraged advanced factory production to deliver high-quality, cost-effective, and rapidly deployable housing units. From light steel frame homes to expandable modular designs, these solutions offer diverse architectural possibilities alongside impressive build efficiency. A key advantage of these "assembled on-site" homes is their remarkable speed of construction. Components are precision-engineered and fabricated in controlled factory environments, drastically cutting down on weather delays, on-site waste, and labor hours compared to conventional building. This streamlined process not only accelerates project timelines—sometimes allowing for assembly in weeks—but also translates into significant cost savings. For developers and municipalities looking to scale housing initiatives quickly and affordably, exploring these proven international models could be a game-changer in meeting urgent demand. Beyond speed and cost, modern prefabricated homes prioritize durability, energy efficiency, and sustainability, often exceeding international building codes. They are designed for longevity, featuring robust structures and insulation systems suitable for various climates. As we seek innovative answers to complex problems, it's crucial to broaden our perspective. Could a strategic embrace of global prefabrication expertise, particularly from leading nations like China, be a vital component in constructing a more accessible and affordable housing future for the United States? It's a conversation worth having.

As cities face housing shortages and escalating rents, this mixed-use development could serve as a blueprint for the future. Costco is evolving beyond groceries by reimagining urban space utilization. The company plans to add 800 apartments atop its stores, transforming vacant airspace into valuable housing. This innovative approach focuses on building upward rather than outward, integrating retail and residential spaces within a single footprint. This model offers several advantages: - More homes without consuming additional land - Shorter commutes for residents - More efficient use of urban space An intriguing aspect of this development is that the store below generates consistent commercial revenue, which can support the housing above. This approach avoids large-scale government expansion and prevents suburban sprawl, instead stacking opportunities where existing infrastructure is already in place. Envision supermarkets, malls, and big-box stores converting their rooftops into vibrant neighborhoods. If successful, this initiative could not only transform retail but also redefine urban planning.

🏠 Housing is not "expensive." Housing is mispriced relative to income. This OECD chart should make policymakers, investors, and households deeply uncomfortable. 📊 What we're seeing The OECD Home Price-to-Income index (2015 = 100) shows the extent to which housing prices have decoupled from household disposable income. OECD average: 116 Portugal: 158 🚨 Canada: 135 U.S.: 130 Spain: 117 Germany: 107 France: 94 Italy: 87 Some countries are living in a different reality altogether. ⚠️ The complication no one wants to admit. This is not just about "high interest rates" or "temporary supply issues." It's a structural affordability crisis driven by: Asset inflation > wage growth Housing is treated as a financial asset, not social infrastructure Zoning, regulation, and construction bottlenecks Capital concentration (domestic + foreign) is chasing scarce tangible assets 💣 The implication (and this is the uncomfortable part): When price-to-income ratios stay elevated for long periods: Homeownership becomes a generational privilege Labor mobility collapses Productivity suffers Political and social tension rises Rent becomes the new tax on the middle class This isn't a "housing cycle." It's a wealth transfer mechanism. 🎯 My position (tell it like it is) Countries above the OECD average are implicitly betting that: "Incomes will eventually catch up." History says they won't—at least not fast enough. Without real income growth, a massive acceleration in supply, or policy intervention, affordability doesn't self-correct. �� What actually works. The data is clear on what moves the needle: Large-scale supply expansion (not pilot projects) Faster permitting and zoning reform Industrialized construction & ConTech adoption Separating housing policy from short-term political cycles Treating Housing as productivity infrastructure, not just wealth storage 🌱 The upsidee Countries that fix affordability unlock: Higher labor participation Stronger urban productivity More resilient middle classes Sustainable long-term growth Housing affordability is no longer a real estate problem. It's a macro, social, and competitiveness problem. And the longer we delay, the higher the bill. 📌 Source: OECD Housing Price-to-Income Index (Q3 2024, indexed to 2015 = 100) 🔗 https://lnkd.in/esxxFdwB #Housing #RealEstate #AffordabilityCrisis #Macroeconomics #UrbanEconomics #OECD #Inequality #Productivity #PolicyFailure