CEO Industry Insights

We laid off 15 people to protect the business. Two weeks later, sales came back. I still think about that one. Sales were down, production was slowing, and we had employees we did not have enough work for. From a finance perspective, the math was hard to ignore. Labor was a major expense, and the company needed to reduce cost. So the decision was made to do a layoff. I traveled to the location with the Director of Operations. We had the conversations, delivered the news, and impacted about 15 people who had lives, bills, families, and no control over the market conditions that put us there. Then sales spiked. And suddenly the problem flipped. We went from having too many people for the work we had to not having enough people for the work that came back. The industry had always been volatile. You could be down millions one day and ahead millions the next. But talent was already hard to find, and now we had let people go that we needed back. I remember the President later saying he had not agreed with the decision. He believed we should have held onto the talent because he knew how hard those roles were to recruit for. That is the part that stayed with me. The layoff was not the only issue. The bigger issue was that the business never had the deeper conversation. Not just, “Can we afford to keep these people right now?” But, “Can we afford to lose them if demand comes back?” Finance was looking at the immediate cost. Operations was going to feel the capacity problem. HR knew the talent would not be easy to replace. The President understood the volatility of the industry. But the decision still moved forward without fully weighing the cost of recovery. That moment changed how I think about workforce decisions. A layoff may reduce expense quickly, but it can also create a future cost the spreadsheet does not show clearly: recruiting cost, ramp time, lost skill, lost trust, overtime, missed production, customer delays, manager strain, and employee fear. Sometimes the question is not only, “How much money do we save by cutting headcount?” Sometimes the better question is, “What will it cost us if we are wrong?” Workforce decisions are never just people decisions or finance decisions. They are business risk decisions.

𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗮 𝗖𝗘𝗢 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗳𝘂𝗹 𝗔𝗜 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝘀𝗮𝘆𝘀, "𝗪𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲'𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴" - 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei just published a pretty long (50+ pages) essay: “The Adolescence of Technology: Confronting and Overcoming the Risks of Powerful AI." You can read it here: https://lnkd.in/dim5QhVT His claim is blunt: “powerful AI” could be just 1-2 years away. Meaning we may be 1-2 years away from a point where today’s AI can autonomously build the next generation. He frames it with a mental model: a “country of geniuses in a datacenter” by ~2027 - think 50 million entities, smarter than any Nobel laureate, operating with a massive time advantage. 𝗛𝗶𝘀 𝗳𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸𝘀 (𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝗺𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰): 1. Autonomy risk ✦ If we can’t reliably predict an advanced model’s goals and behavior, capability turns into uncertainty - at scale. 2. Misuse for destruction ✦ The risk is not only “power,” it’s “access.” AI can reduce the skill barrier for catastrophic harm, especially in biology. 3. Misuse for seizing power ✦ AI-enabled surveillance, propaganda, and autonomous weapons can entrench authoritarian control. He also flags the risk of democracies using these tools domestically. 4. Economic disruption ✦ Speed + breadth + concentration. If cognitive labor is automated quickly, wealth and power can concentrate faster than societies can adapt. 5. Indirect effects ✦ Second-order impacts we won’t forecast well until they hit: institutions, culture, incentives, and human behavior. Good to see leaders at major labs thinking in such depth on such a topic. It is noteworthy that he is also referring under the fourth risk economic disruption directly to: https://lnkd.in/dV8MwBPY ↓ 𝗜𝗳 𝗔𝗜 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗷𝗼𝗯 - 𝗼𝗿 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 - 𝘆𝗼𝘂’𝗹𝗹 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗺𝘆 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 (𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘): https://lnkd.in/dbf74Y9E

We all know AI will continue to be the defining conversation for 2026, but what I’m hearing most often from leaders is: “How do we leverage AI without introducing untenable risk?” This year, we will see three defining shifts, all underpinned by the top priority for the CEO and the critical operational mandate for the CIO: security. AI is transforming the threat landscape faster than most organizations can adapt, and a reactive approach is a business risk. An AI-powered defense shield is the foundation for safe reinvention. It’s about real-time visibility, actionable insights, and closing the loop from discovery to remediation across IT, OT, and cloud silos. This strategic and operational imperative shapes our three key shifts: 📌 Proliferation of (Secure) AI Agents: Beyond chatbots to specialized agents embedded in every function - HR, IT, customer service - running autonomous workflows. They become proactive partners, but every connected asset they touch expands the attack surface. The CIO's mandate: ensure this happens securely, at scale. 📌 Deepening Industry Impact with Real-Time Protection: True transformation happens in mission-critical workflows. In healthcare, with thousands of connected devices managing patient data. In manufacturing, on smart factory floors. The CEO needs confidence that business reinvention can happen in their industry; the CIO needs a unified platform to see, decide, and act across it all. 📌 Expanding a Unified Security Posture: Our “ANY” strategy - connecting to any model, any data, any service - demands a unified view of risk. Observability, asset management, incident response… Risk doesn’t stay in silos; to manage it requires architecture that breaks down walls between IT, security, and operations. This is the year intelligent, secure automation becomes inseparable from business strategy. The organizations that thrive will be those that align the CEO's security-first vision with the CIO's execution, proactively seeing every asset, prioritizing every risk, and acting before an incident occurs. Here’s to a transformative - and secure - 2026. #AI #CyberSecurity #DigitalTransformation

What’s keeping CEOs up at night? The latest Q4 2025 data is in, courtesy of Dimitrios Paraskevopoulos and the team at IoT Analytics, and it marks a meaningful shift in the boardroom agenda. For the first time ever, AI is the most talked-about topic among CEOs. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬: • 𝐀𝐈 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 #𝟏 𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐭, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐝. AI appeared in 47% of earnings calls, overtaking tariffs and economic topics. This wasn’t driven by a sudden hype spike, but by a relative decline in tariff and macroeconomic discussions. What’s notable is how CEOs are discussing AI, alongside real enablers like data centers (+16% QoQ), copilots (+22%), agentic AI, and MCP. The conversation is moving from experimentation to execution. • 𝐀𝐈 𝐛𝐮𝐛𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐬 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐚𝐝𝐨𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. Mentions of a potential AI bubble increased 64% QoQ, signaling growing board-level scrutiny. CEOs are split: some defend AI as a horizontal, long-term technology, while others draw parallels to the dot-com era, particularly around valuations and circular AI investment dynamics. AI may be priority #1, but it is no longer unquestioned. • 𝐔𝐒 𝐠𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐮𝐭𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐨𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐫𝐨𝐨𝐦. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history drove a 179% QoQ increase in shutdown mentions, appearing in 17% of earnings calls. Most CEOs treated it as a risk to monitor rather than a crisis, focusing on contract exposure, demand impacts, and consumer confidence. • 𝐓𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞. Tariff mentions fell 30% QoQ, and general uncertainty dropped 26% QoQ. These issues haven’t disappeared, but they are no longer dominating CEO attention. 𝐌𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞: This is a quiet but important inflection point. AI didn’t rise to the top because CEOs became more optimistic. It rose because the conversation matured. The focus is shifting from whether to invest in AI to how to do it responsibly, with real infrastructure, real data, and realistic expectations. The rise in AI bubble discourse is not a warning sign; it’s evidence that boardrooms are starting to separate durable advantage from short-term hype. How does this match what you are seeing? 𝐅𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭: https://lnkd.in/eMnmHNrk ******************************************* • Visit www.jeffwinterinsights.com for access to all my content and to stay current on Industry 4.0 and other cool tech trends • Ring the 🔔 for notifications!

Layoffs cost 10X to 100X more than they save, but HR’s data only covers compensation, so business leaders only see savings. I use data to talk at least one CEO out of layoffs every month. Here’s how to protect your team from the chopping block. Quantify the Loss: The most common mistake is making the case with the value the team has created and the projects it has delivered. CEOs think about future value, not past gains, when making layoff decisions. What projects won’t deliver and how much revenue will be lost? CEOs need growth now more than ever. Build the case with data that quantifies the forward-looking value on the team’s product roadmap. Emphasize This Year’s Losses: Your CEO is being told that after an initial cost in the next 1-2 quarters, the business will see higher margins. Quantify this year’s lost revenue in big, bold terms. Showcase how internal efficiency initiatives will save the company more than the team costs. What external teams will miss their goals? Everyone advocates for themselves, so you’ll stand out by getting other leaders to add their voices. Use external teams’ KPIs and connect them to top-level strategic goals. Reduce Costs Without Reducing Headcount: Take high-cost, low or uncertain returning projects off the roadmap. Optimize hardware and cloud utilization. Push out tool and infrastructure purchases. Consolidate and put pressure on vendors to offer discounts. I frame this as, “I can’t reduce the staffing budget, but here are other areas where I can provide similar savings this year.” Instead of saying “No,” give your CEO alternatives and new options. Focus on informing vs. convincing. Every company’s CEO and CFO are taking a hard look at the technology budget, and layoffs are being discussed quarterly. Be proactive. Assume it’s coming and prepare the case now. Your team and career will be better off if you do.

The biggest risk in copper may be waiting for it. Looking at this demand forecast, I kept thinking about conversations with people in mining. They rarely talk in quarters or even commodity cycles. They talk in decades because that is how long new supply can take to reach the market. • Copper demand is expected to rise by 50% between 2025 and 2040. • AI and data centres are becoming a meaningful new source of demand alongside electrification. • Grid expansion, renewable energy and EVs continue to increase structural copper consumption. • Supply cannot respond at the same speed because building mines is a long industrial process. The physical economy runs on timelines that financial markets often underestimate. Copper could be one of the clearest examples of that gap. Do you think markets are fully pricing this supply challenge?

What can CEOs learn from a butterfly’s 3,000-mile migration? Turns out — quite a lot.   In my latest Forbes column, I explore how nature’s #resilience blueprint can guide leaders through unrelenting #volatility.   Over the past five years, system shocks have become the norm. AI, supply chain #disruption, workforce #reinvention — all demand not just response, but reinvention.   To better understand how companies are adapting, we analyzed 1,600 organizations in our third Accenture Resilience Index. The results are telling: - The gap between high- and low-resilience companies has widened by 17 points. - Only 15% of companies are achieving long-term profitable growth. - But those that do grow revenues 600 bps faster and margins 800 bps higher than peers.   So, what sets them apart? They don’t just survive disruption — they anticipate and harness it.   We call this adaptive resilience, and it’s built across four critical pillars: 1. Technology – 85% of CEOs plan to boost GenAI investments. But only 34% have scaled AI solutions. 2. Commercial – Resilient firms strike a balance between margin protection and customer-centric growth. 3. People – Companies that invest in both talent and tech are 4x more likely to thrive. 4. Operations – Agile networks react to disruption 62% faster and recover 60% quicker.   Just like monarchs who migrate collectively and adapt generationally, today’s leading companies aren’t just strong — they’re versatile, forward-looking, and built for change.   Read the full piece to see how nature’s most fragile creatures might just hold the secret to enduring growth. https://lnkd.in/gnW9T2Nq #AdaptiveResilience #BusinessReinvention #EnterpriseResilience #AgenticAI #GenAI #FutureofWork #Leadership #ForbesColumn

Leadership Lessons from Africa: Building Business Resilience in Uncertain Times   As global markets navigate these periods of uncertainty, I find myself reflecting on my years leading businesses across Africa— where managing volatility isn't just a skill; it's about survival.   In 2024 in Nigeria, markets have seen the 5th benchmark interest rate hike to curb inflation; there have been 11 power grid collapses; the currency has lost 70% of its value against the dollar since May 2023. Within this environment, businesses adapt and innovate. Some even thrive.   Here are five lessons I learned:   1. Political Uncertainty: Success means playing the long game. In one role, I operated through three different administrations. Maintaining relationships across the political spectrum while upholding strong governance is crucial. Our government affairs strategy had to go beyond election cycles.   2. Policy Shifts: We developed operating models that could pivot quickly.  Import Tariffs would change without warning. We always had backup plans ready—whether carrying extra inventory or activating alternative business lines.   3. FX availability and price: Survival meant securing the cash first, then solving for profitability. We had multiple supply chains with different risk profiles and developed flexible pricing strategies that could adapt. Not without significant pain.   4. Infrastructure Gaps: At one company, poor power supply birthed a solar business. In another, we built roads to our factories (one across a swamp!). A gas availability problem created a thriving alternative fuels business: waste, rice husks, palm kernel shells to energy. This fed the factories and created employment for local communities. Infrastructure challenges forced innovation.   5. Market Constraints: As purchasing power drops, companies have responded with "sachet economics"—offering smaller pack sizes… (an environmental headache)….. to maintain affordability   We learned that resilience isn't about avoiding challenges; it's about building systems that can absorb shocks and adapt quickly.    Luckily, most global CEOs will not face these multiple onslaughts, but will be building resiliency strategies to navigate today's uncertainties.   What strategies have helped build resilience in your companies?   #Leadership #BusinessStrategy #GlobalBusiness #Resilience #Innovation #EmergingMarkets  

According to new research highlighted by CFO Dive, 60% of Fortune 500 CEOs now put AI at the top of their risk register, above geopolitics and cyber. What this really shows is how quickly AI has become a core strategic issue for leadership teams. When leaders label something a top risk, what they’re really saying is "this is now central to our how we think about the long term sustainability of our business." The real danger isn’t AI itself - it’s failing to understand and deploy it well. I’ve written before about how an overly cautious attitude to risk quietly caps a company’s potential. The same applies when thinking about AI as a risk. For me, the task for CEOs comes down to three things: 1. Learn fast. You can’t outsource understanding of AI to a single team. Boards and leadership need real fluency. 2. Build serious governance. Clear guardrails on data, compliance and ethics turn “AI risk” into “AI we trust and understand”. 3. Invest in people, not just platforms. The organisations that win will be those where teams are equipped to work confidently with AI. Risk and opportunity are two sides of the same coin. If AI is now your biggest risk, that's a prompt to understand it better. Full article in the comments.

In 2025, CEOs feared falling behind on AI. In 2026, they fear something worse: being held accountable for it. We surveyed 900 CEOs globally, with Harris Poll, and what they told us this year is different. Less hype, more pressure, and more honesty about what AI can actually deliver. A few things that stuck with me: → 80% say their job is at risk if AI fails to deliver by end of 2026 → 87% would stake their job on delivering measurable results → And yet, confidence in deploying AI agents at scale dropped from 41% to 31% in a single year The companies that win this phase won't be the reactive movers. They'll be the ones who build AI in a way they trust it enough to change their business around it. AI Success requires three things working together: the right people empowered to build and use AI AND orchestration that connects models and agents into your stack safely AND governance that makes every agentic decision traced and explainable. You miss one, you just build AI that you can't use enough to build your business around it. Full report: https://lnkd.in/eT37EnnM