Strategic Technology Trends in Government

The first five months of 2026 have made one thing incredibly clear: the intersection of government and cybersecurity is moving at machine speed. The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence, intense geopolitical friction, and a string of high-profile breaches since January have fundamentally reshaped the threat landscape. The most pressing issues facing governments and cyber defenders right now come down to five major trends. 1. The Weaponization of Autonomous "Agentic AI" The Threat: These AI agents can autonomously perform network reconnaissance, adapt malware on the fly to bypass specific security patches, and move laterally through government systems without human intervention. The Impact: Defensive Security Operations Centers (SOCs) are being forced to pivot to their own AI-driven defense models just to keep up with the automated speed of these attacks. 2. Mass Credential Exposures & The Death of Identity Verification Governments are dealing with a massive surge in compromised administrative credentials, rendering traditional password-based security virtually useless. Federal & State Exposure: In April 2026, a massive security report revealed that over 3,500 U.S. state legislators' emails and passwords had been dumped on the dark web, opening the door for massive lateral access into state networks. Deepfakes in the Government: Real-time video and audio deepfakes have advanced to the point where they are actively used to bypass identity verification. 3. Targeted Attacks on Municipalities & Critical Infrastructure Rather than always swinging for major federal networks, attackers in 2026 are aggressively targeting localized "soft targets"—local governments and utilities—where cybersecurity budgets are thin. Los Angeles Data Breach (March 2026): A massive breach at the LA City Attorney's Office exposed 7.7 terabytes of data, including sensitive law enforcement records, after attackers compromised a third-party file transfer system. Water & Local Services (March/April 2026): A ransomware attack hit the water treatment facility in Minot, North Dakota, forcing operators to run the plant using manual gauges. Weeks later, Winona County, Minnesota, had to declare a local emergency and call in the National Guard after a cyberattack crippled the DMV and vital records systems. 4. Software Supply Chain Fragility Attackers have realized they don't need to break through a government agency’s heavily fortified front door if they can slip through a third-party vendor's back door. Governments rely on sprawling networks of remote managed service providers (MSPs), cloud platforms, and open-source code libraries. A single vulnerability in a widely used third-party tool is now resulting in cascading breaches across dozens of interconnected public agencies simultaneously. The 2026 Bottom Line:** The old framework of "preventing" a hack is officially dead.

A substantive policy decision has come out of France, where the government has committed to phasing out US based collaboration platforms across public administration in favor of a domestically developed alternative. The rationale is not novelty or protectionism, but governance. France will require public officials to move away from platforms including Zoom, Microsoft Teams, Google Meet, WhatsApp, and Telegram Messenger, shifting instead to state approved tools such as Visio for videoconferencing and Tchap for messaging. Visio is developed under the authority of the Interministerial Digital Directorate and runs on French infrastructure. It is already used by tens of thousands of civil servants, with a target of broad adoption across government by 2027. https://lnkd.in/efbMG5NN Collaboration platforms are not neutral tools. They structure data flows, determine jurisdictional exposure, and embed long term dependencies into public institutions. In a regulatory environment shaped by GDPR, the EU AI Act, and increased scrutiny of cross border data transfers, these choices are no longer technical. They are political, legal, and strategic. France’s move reflects a broader shift in how digital infrastructure is understood in Europe. Digital sovereignty is being translated into procurement rules, system architecture, and enforceable institutional practice. Similar calls for greater digital independence from the United States have been made by European leaders across Germany, Spain, and at the EU level, particularly in relation to cloud services, data localization, and strategic technologies. A cross-party majority of Members of the European Parliament have explicitly called for reducing reliance on US digital infrastructure and expanding European capabilities in a recent technological sovereignty resolution, framing it as a strategic necessity rather than mere regulation.  https://lnkd.in/eBHQ3YfE What distinguishes the French case is the execution. Policy intent has now been converted into mandatory tools, monitored adoption, and infrastructure level enforcement.

The UK government just published a roadmap to 2030. On January 20, 2026, the Government Digital Service released the Roadmap for Modern Digital Government. This is a whole of government blueprint outlining how public services will modernise using technology, data, and AI through 2030. The roadmap covers three pillars. 1. Simplifying citizen interaction. 2. Strengthening digital infrastructure. 3. Building technical talent across departments. Previous government technology strategies were published, acknowledged, then ignored. Departments continued operating as before because the strategies lacked enforcement mechanisms or funding commitments. This roadmap is different.  It defines technology standards departments must adopt. It specifies service design principles that are mandatory, not suggested. It commits to operational reform with timelines and accountability. What changes when standards become mandatory: → Departments can no longer build isolated systems that refuse to integrate. → Service design must start with user research, not departmental convenience. → Data sharing becomes the default with clear governance, not the exception requiring special permissions. → Digital talent becomes a cross government capability, not individual department hiring. The document addresses the fundamental problem that has plagued government technology for decades. Every department operating as an independent technology organisation, duplicating effort and fragmenting citizen experience. The roadmap mandates collaboration. Shared platforms. Common standards. Reusable components. Success depends on whether GDS has the authority to enforce compliance when departments resist. Publishing standards means nothing if departments can ignore them without consequences. The next 12 months will reveal whether this is genuine transformation or another well intentioned document that gets filed and forgotten. How confident are you that your department will actually implement these standards instead of finding workarounds? #DigitalGovernment #GovTech #DigitalTransformation #GDS

🔮 Six Tech Megatrends That Will Shape Global Security by 2045 Last week NATO Science & Technology Organization (STO) published their latest Science & Technology Trends report offers a bold, forward-looking analysis of how innovation will shape geopolitics, security, and society in the next 20 years. Six macro trends that leaders, innovators, and strategists can't afford to ignore and actionable insights: 1️⃣ Evolving Competition Areas 🔍 Warfare is no longer just land, sea, and air — it’s cyber, space, hybrid, and cognitive. Strategic competition is increasingly shaped by non-kinetic tactics like economic coercion and information warfare. 💡 Action: Modernise crisis response tools, invest in space & cyber resilience, and adapt deterrence strategies for multi-domain operations. 2️⃣ Race for AI & Quantum Superiority 🤖 AI and quantum are not just disruptive — they’re transformational. Whoever leads here will shape the future of economics, security, and innovation. 💡 Action: Develop national quantum roadmaps, boost AI education, and establish ethical frameworks. Collaborate across borders — no nation can go it alone. 3️⃣ Biotechnology Revolution 🧬 Synthetic biology is unlocking revolutionary applications — from healthcare to defence. But with power comes risk: synthetic bioweapons, data misuse, and regulatory gaps loom large. 💡 Action: Set global bioethical norms, invest in CBRN resilience, and mainstream climate considerations in biosecurity planning. 4️⃣ Resource Divide 🌍 Climate change and tech gaps could widen global inequalities. Emerging tech can bridge or deepen this divide. 💡 Action: Advance equitable access to green tech and AI; promote technology diplomacy to manage competition over critical materials and foster inclusive growth. 5️⃣ Fragmenting Public Trust 📉 AI-generated misinformation is eroding confidence in institutions and democracy. Disinformation is now a strategic weapon. 💡 Action: Prioritise media literacy, transparent governance, and regulation of AI-generated content. Trust is the new strategic asset. 6️⃣ Technology Integration & Dependencies 🔗 Innovation is outpacing policy. Interoperability and private sector reliance are now mission-critical. 💡 Action: Design defence systems that are interoperable by default. Cultivate agile partnerships with tech industry leaders and academia. But what ties it all together? 🌐 Climate change 📉 Challenged rules-based order 🤝 Global partnerships 🏢 The rise of the private sector These themes are no longer background noise — they’re the connective tissue of the future. 🔮 The takeaway? The race isn’t just about technology — it’s about strategic vision, collective resilience, and ethical leadership. The choices we make today will define not just future battlefields, but how societies thrive or falter. Full report included below! 👇 #NATO #AI #Quantum #Biotech #StrategicForesight #TechDiplomacy #EmergingTech #LeadershipMatters

📣 Call for Papers A new consensus – among both academics and policy-makers - has emerged on the legitimacy and importance of technology and industrial policies. Many studies have documented the increase in technology and industrial policy measures by a large majority of States, with a great variety of goals, policy tools and outcomes. In order to undersand this policy turn, however, there is a need to develop a stronger conceptual framework, and investigate the relationships with the processes of structural change and transformation at the macro, meso and micro levels in different national contexts. The objectives of current technology and industrial policies are greatly different, ranging from the support for the digital transition, to the green transformation of economies, to the control of strategic technologies, to the expansion of military technologies and industries. Such priorities reflect different – largely incompatible - visions of economic and political change, lead to the development of diverging policy tools, and imply distinct relationships between national (and supranational) political power and the economic interests and activities of various business groups. The SCED special issue on Strategic technologies and industrial policies invites submissions of papers addressing these issues, with particular attention to the following themes: - assessing the goals, tools, outcomes and impacts of specific industrial policies – including those for digitalisation, for the Green Deal, electric cars, renewable energy, for military industry - and for specific technologies – such as advanced digital devices, AI, critical minerals, renewable energy technologies, batteries, military applications, etc. - the international consequences of such policy turn, exploring impacts on trade, international production, global value chains, capital flows, as well as on State rivalries in the areas of strategic and military technologies and industries, including policies by the US, China, Europe and BRICS. An additional question is how global issues such as climate change can be addressed by a national focus of policies. - the new State-business relationships that emerge from policies that range from large public subsidies to firms, to conditionality on investment decisions, to regulatory frameworks for new activities, to the role of State-owned enterprises. - the political economy dimensions of the expansion of technology and industrial policies, in the context of the return of a major economic role of States, and of the emphasis on national security and sovereignty. For more information: https://lnkd.in/e-mWuZsT Centre for Sustainable Structural Transformation, SOAS University of London SOAS Economics German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) Scuola Normale Superiore

🚄 Want to cut administrative costs for healthcare and taxation, compliance burden to small businesses, transactions costs for real estate, rates of identity theft, waiting times to resolve court cases (etc...) by 70-90%? 🚀 👨💻 Those aren’t moonshots; they’re the realistic targets government transformation efforts in the US (DOGE), Germany (Initiative Handlungsfähiger Staat) and elsewhere should be setting. 📣 I’ve just published two papers that put hard numbers on how tech can make government 3–4 × cheaper and faster—and what bigger nations can learn from Estonia (and also Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine): ▸ THE END OF BUREAUCRACY How Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania reinvented governance—and what Germany must do to catch up (with Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom) ▸ FACTSHEET On government digitization, efficiency & performance in the US vs Estonia (with Stanford University Libraries, Vabamu and Abundance Institute) Links in comments. Both draw on lessons from my time as Estonia’s government CIO, much data and some wonderful contributors and interviews. 🇺🇸 🇩🇪 For politicians, reformers and voters in the US, Germany and elsewhere, my goal is not to gloat or induce despair. But you can and should raise your expectations - and use tech to get there! Beyond the specific recommendations, the papers make some general contributions to the global discussion on tech and outcomes in government: 1️⃣ Defining what “good” looks like in terms of outcomes, not tech. The papers line up transaction- and oucome-level metrics—tax filing time, cost per €100 of revenue, healthcare admin overhead, case-resolution days. A consistent result: public services services aren’t 20–30 % better, they’re 3–4×: 🔹 Cost of collecting €100 in tax → €0.20 in Estonia vs €1.30 in Germany 🔹 Time spent on annual income tax → ~3 min vs 13 h in the US 🔹 Healthcare admin overhead → 1.5-2% in the Baltics vs 4.5% in Germany and 20% in the US 2️⃣ For govtech, uptake > tech specs Lots of governments build digital ID rails; almost none hit 90 % usage. And 90% uptake → exponential growth in volumes. If Germany matched Estonia (or Lithuania's) eID usage rates, volumes would increase 1000x 3️⃣ Automation, not just AI. Many public benefits are deterministic, you don't need AI for process automation. Gen-AI does slash marginal costs of digital transformation and opens new domains — but it still relies on the clean data and rails. ⚖️ We still lack a global KPI for “% end-to-end automated services.” ➡️ Happy to collaborate on this Links in comments. 📊 Which metric surprises you most? 🤝 Where should we take this research next—AI KPIs, an agenda for Länder and states? Drop thoughts or DM; always glad to present the findings.

AI is no longer just a trend we analyse in strategic foresight. It is moving inside the practice itself – and it will redefine anticipatory governance for the next decade. A new white paper from the OECD and the World Economic Forum, “AI in Strategic Foresight: Reshaping Anticipatory Governance”, maps this transition with data from 167 foresight experts in 55 countries. The message is clear: the future of foresight will be human + AI – or it will be left behind. A few signals that stood out to me: – Around two-thirds of foresight practitioners are already using AI in their work, mainly for trend analysis (69%), scenario development (63%) and horizon scanning (60%). – The private sector is racing ahead: 93% of private-sector respondents feel they have the skills to use AI in foresight, versus just over half in government and civil society. – Only 27% of those already using AI have formal ethical guidelines in place – most rely on informal norms and judgement for issues like bias, transparency and data use. So we are at an inflection point. AI can: – Compress weeks of scanning into hours. – Surface weak signals that humans miss. – Stress-test more scenarios than any team could manually. But it can also flood leaders with shallow, biased, unverifiable outputs and quietly erode trust in foresight if we treat it as an oracle instead of an instrument. The next wave of strategic foresight will be defined by three moves: 1. Building serious AI literacy in foresight teams – especially in the public sector. 2. Moving beyond “AI as a faster search engine” to integrated, customised workflows for scanning, mapping complexity and simulating policy options. 3. Embedding clear ethical guardrails so that AI augments human imagination instead of automating our blind spots. AI will not replace futurists or foresight units. But futurists who learn to work with AI – as an analytical engine, a creative sparring partner and a governance challenge – will shape how institutions navigate the next era of uncertainty. If you work in government, strategy, policy, or innovation, this report is not just interesting reading. It is a roadmap for how we redesign anticipatory governance before AI does it for us.

The White House published a 28-page AI roadmap that will reshape government procurement forever. America's “AI Action Plan” represents the largest technology procurement wave since the Interstate Highway System. The government has moved from regulatory caution to aggressive adoption, creating unprecedented opportunities across three strategic areas. What most vendors miss, though, is that this isn't just about building better AI. Instead, it’s about understanding how procurement criteria have fundamentally changed. Traditional "lowest price technically acceptable" is out. Strategic alignment with the plan's pillars is in. The carousel below breaks down everything you need to know to position your company for these contracts. You'll get: → The three pillars explained (and which creates the fastest revenue) → Why federal employee AI mandates mean immediate enterprise contracts → How regulatory sandboxes can cut your sales cycle in half → Which states get funding priority (and which get penalized) → The export programs that can 10x your domestic contract value → 3 immediate actions to take this week before competitors catch up While everyone else scrambles to understand policy language, you can position your company to win the biggest government contracts of the decade. Let’s get into it:

The future of government modernization won’t be defined by who buys the most AI. It will be defined by who builds the operational foundation to actually use it. That’s why the City of Charlottesville’s transformation matters. Not because it was a technology refresh, but because it was a leadership decision to prepare the city for a completely different operating environment ahead. One quote from Steve Hawkes, Charlottesville’s Director of IT, stood out to me: “We are never going to be able to compete on pay.” That’s the reality facing governments across the country. Public sector organizations are competing against private sector salaries, private sector recruiting budgets, and private sector technology experiences. They can’t always outspend the market for talent. But they can create environments where people are empowered to do meaningful work with modern tools that actually function the way they should. That changes everything. Charlottesville’s modernization wasn’t just about infrastructure. It was about creating a more resilient operating model: - Modern employee experiences - Stronger cybersecurity and cloud operations - Better workforce management and recruiting capabilities - AI-ready systems designed for long-term adaptability This is the broader shift happening across government right now. Agencies and municipalities are moving beyond maintaining fragmented legacy systems and toward building connected, intelligent enterprises capable of operating in real time. And the lesson here is important: technology alone doesn’t drive transformation. Leadership alignment, change management, and trusted partnerships do. The governments that lead over the next decade won’t necessarily be the ones with the largest budgets. They’ll be the ones willing to modernize before the pressure becomes existential. That’s what future-ready government looks like. Read the full story and watch the interview with Steve Hawkes here: https://lnkd.in/eme-DKcq Bill Luis

Artificial intelligence is no longer just a vision for the future—it’s revolutionizing how government agencies operate today. A recent Google-commissioned IDC study found that 50% of federal agencies report high AI maturity, embracing innovation and piloting generative AI to enhance mission impact. Here are the top AI trends we’re seeing shape the public sector in 2025, with real-world success stories: 🔹 Multimodal AI – Hawaii DOT is using Google Earth Engine and Cloud AI to tackle climate challenges and prioritize infrastructure investments. 🔹 AI Agents – Sullivan County NY government implemented virtual agents using Google AI to serve more citizens 24/7, even with limited staff. 🔹 Assistive Search – The Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) is leveraging AI and cloud computing to accelerate research in materials science, bioinformatics, and human performance optimization. 🔹 AI-Powered Citizen Services – Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development (DWD) scaled unemployment insurance claims processing with AI, reducing fraud and improving response times. 🔹 AI-Driven Security – New York City faces 90 billion cyber events per week—AI-powered automation helps filter down to the most critical risks. AI is already transforming government agencies across the country. To continue this momentum, agencies must invest in AI leadership, governance, and security to build trust and resilience. Download the AI Trends 2025 in Public Sector report to explore how AI can support your mission: #GooglePublicSector #PublicSectorInnovation