MBIS, Municipal Bond Information Services

Two weeks of selling and the curve's shape hasn't budged. 2s30s sits at 193 basis points this afternoon. On July 17 it was 194. What moved is the whole thing, about 18 basis points cheaper at every tenor since then. Today ran the same script in miniature. The 2-year added a tenth of a basis point, the 30-year 2.9, so the long end did the work again and the front sat it out. The intraday tape has been swinging roughly nine basis points inside a range for days now, and it pushed to the top of that range right at 1 PM. For anyone laddering, a parallel shift is easier to work with than a twist. Relative value across maturities is where you left it. The entry is just 18 wider. MBIS, Municipal Bond Information Services runs the whole board intraday. #munimarket #bonds #yieldcurve #debtmanagement

Execution on bid wanteds closed the month around 43%, the weakest read on the 06/30 to 07/29 window. July opened near 59%. Depth explains most of it. Bids per item ran close to 4.9 on the 21st and finished near 4.2, with a 3.7 low on the 23rd. Fewer bids per item takes the pressure off whoever's bidding, so more paper goes home unsold. J.P. Morgan flagged bids wanted running well above their five-week average this month, and a $7 billion-plus calendar is pulling at the same dealer balance sheets. Secondary paper gets what's left. If you're selling into August, list size is doing more work than price talk right now. MBIS, Municipal Bond Information Services publishes both series daily. #municipalbonds #fixedincome #bondmarket #muniland

July 21 put more paper on the bid list than any session in the past month. Around 6,400 items out for a bid, volume near 1.3M. Two weeks ago these were only just climbing back to June's pace. They've cleared it now. Volume and count spiked in step, so it's a wide book of sellers working the list, ordinary-size paper across the board. The summer redemption peak is doing it. July and August return more cash than any other months, and it's landing against roughly $10B of new issue this week. When reinvestment runs this hard, sellers know the bid is there, so more of them show paper. MBIS, Municipal Bond Information Services carries the daily volume and count. #municipalbonds #fixedincome #munimarket #publicfinance

The school GO index is up 7.97% over the trailing year. We build it with the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago's Center for Municipal Finance, tracking general obligation debt from school districts nationwide. Pull back on the multi-year view and the index sits near 108, still well under its 2021 peak. The last twelve months have been a slow grind back from the 2022 repricing. This week gave a little back, off 0.57%. One soft week against a year like that barely registers. For anyone holding school paper, that trailing number is the backdrop: muni yields near their highest in years doing the work on total return. MBIS, Municipal Bond Information Services carries the index daily. #municipalbonds #publicfinance #creditanalysis #munibonds

Yields backed up right across the AAA curve today. The 30-year didn't move. Everything from the front out to 26 years sold off five to seven basis points, worst in the belly, where the 6-year cheapened 7.2 and the 7-year 7.0. Then the far long end just sat there. The 30-year slipped two-tenths to 4.518, the 29-year the same. That's the July duration bid holding through a down day. Reinvestment cash has kept the back of the curve pinned all month, and today it absorbed a broad selloff without giving up the long bond. Some of this is Treasuries. The 30-year UST pushed back above 5% this week on the oil bid, and munis followed the front and belly higher. For anyone laddering, the belly took today's repricing. The tail barely flinched. MBIS, Municipal Bond Information Services has the tenor-by-tenor read. #municipalbonds #fixedincome #bondmarket #creditanalysis

Offering supply has run full again since mid-July. Two air pockets sit behind it: July 2 halved to $25M for the long weekend, and July 9 dipped to $34M, both with counts falling in step. Read those as the calendar clearing out, then refilling. The last three sessions closed near $53M a day on more than 200,000 items, back to the late-June high. The 07/14 tape paired $56M with 217,000 items. High volume on high count like that is a broad book of ordinary-size deals, so buyers have plenty to work through. Demand still outweighs it. This week's new-issue calendar runs about $7.2B against August redemptions near $51B, and that reinvestment cash keeps clearing the offerings. Worth watching whether supply holds once the cash fades into September. MBIS, Municipal Bond Information Services tracks the daily count. #municipalbonds #fixedincome #bondmarket #financialdata

Almost every name on today's Utah bid-wanted screen sat at zero bids. Most of the list is small. Single-family housing in $25,000 lots. School-district GOs and county building-authority paper further down the screen. Odd-lot cleanup, the flow that shows up when redemptions hit and cash has to go somewhere. One name drew a crowd. Summit County's 5s of 2040, a $900k block, pulled five bids and covered at 108.025, just under the 108.128 top, yielding 3.955 at roughly 75 over. Real depth while the rest went untouched. June through August are the heavy redemption months, and Utah Housing keeps landing on the shop list as supply builds. Whether that retail paper finds bids is the read worth watching. MBIS, Municipal Bond Information Services carries the full state screen daily. #municipalbonds #fixedincome #publicfinance #muniland

Two weeks after we last mapped this, the state impact view has barely rearranged itself. Texas still leads, richening about 19 basis points. New York and Washington still anchor the other side, up 15 and 14. Massachusetts is the one addition, up 11. The split holds because supply location holds. Roughly $10.6B prices this week against August redemptions near $51B, so the states carrying the fattest calendars keep cheapening to clear. The light-supply names catch the same cash with less paper against them. Texas and Wisconsin keep richening on thin offerings. The heavy-calendar states keep paying up. We track all 50 daily at MBIS, Municipal Bond Information Services. Worth watching whether the map moves at all once the August redemption wave lands. #municipalbonds #munimarket #publicfinance #bondmarket

Reaching from 24 years out to 30 pays about 10 basis points right now. A month ago it paid closer to 20. The 24-year did the catching up. It's climbed roughly 16 basis points off its late-June low near 4.08, up to 4.24. The 30-year just recovered its own dip and settled back near 4.34, flat the last several sessions. So the tail of the curve flattened while the front got all the attention. That's the summer duration bid working its way in. Reinvestment cash chased the long bond first, and now it's filling in the maturities just short of it. Bid volume on this point ran heavy most of July. For anyone extending the ladder, those extra six years pay half what they did in June. MBIS, Municipal Bond Information Services has the point-by-point read. #municipalbonds #fixedincome #yieldcurve #muniland

Quiet midday tape. The benchmark curve's frozen through the belly, the 5-year unchanged, the 10 up three-tenths of a basis point. The 30-year did the only real moving, down 1.7 to 4.324. Step back to July 3, when this dashboard had 2s30s near 187. It's 194 now. The front's gone nowhere while the long end drifted cheaper, and that's where the steepening came from. For anyone extending the ladder, that's the whole point: the curve keeps paying more to reach for duration even on days rates sit still. About $9.5B prices this week against peak summer redemptions, per the Bond Buyer calendar. Reinvestment cash is still absorbing it. MBIS, Municipal Bond Information Services carries the tenor-by-tenor read and the intraday tape. #municipalbonds #yieldcurve #fixedincome #debtmanagement