Question A:
Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.
Responses
Source: European IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/european-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/european-economic-experts-panel
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Source: European IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/european-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/european-economic-experts-panel
Question B:
Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.
Responses
Source: European IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/european-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/european-economic-experts-panel
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Source: European IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/european-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/european-economic-experts-panel
Question A Participant Responses
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Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Historical evidence doesn't make me too pessimistic but some adjustment to labor market policies might be necessary to avoid transition cost
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The Graduate Institute Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some advanced countries have adequate institutions to facilitate the transition and a demography foreboding a shortage of workers.
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LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The problem may be that wages are low or that work is unsatisfactory, but not long term unemployment. Labor force participation may decline.
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Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Must be true in the short run, unless it takes place in the context of expanding aggregate demand, which would facilitate reabsoption
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IE Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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robots may be accompanied by other innovations that can abosorb the workers laid off, but exent of this is uncertain
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Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Bio/Vote History | ||
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the answer depends a lot on what alternative employment (at possibly lower wages) is available.
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Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Speed of innovation quite unclear; suppressing labour market and training response loads the question in direction of unemployment.
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Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We will see lots of changes, not only robots coming in. But also very different ways of working, leading also to shorter employment spells.
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Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Perhaps unemployment could rise in the short run but employment will respond to labor supply: there will be jobs.
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Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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History&prior; evidence disagree. Some job polarization&lots; of complementarity. Could AI&robots; be different? Yes, but so far very uncertain -see background information here
-see background information here |
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Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The outcome will depend on the institutional structure. More flexible labor markets will allow a faster adjustment
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Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some workers will be displaced, some will retrain, the new technology is likely to diffuse slowly, especially in service industries.
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Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Job training needs to change
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Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jobs will be destroyed in some sectors but created in other sectors. Sectoral shifts are common without large unemployment hikes
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London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unemployment depends on macro policies.
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Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to predict impact of technology on jobs with our current levels of knowledge. Innovation often has positive as well as negative effects -see background information here
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Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It seems pretty clear that the potential gains would outweigh the losses.
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The Graduate Institute Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In theory yes. However the workers want jobs, not transfers. Very difficult during the transition.
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Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Compensating the losers will require fiscal adaptations in order to improve the scope for redistribution
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LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It all depends how the ownership of the AI technology is distributed. AI by itself may be very effective at concentrating ownership.
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Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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True in theory. In practice, it will depend on the transfers system in place and other elements determined by the political process
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IE Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The answer depends on how the various frictions in the labour market play out. No general answer is available.
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Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Absolutely. But mind the term "could". Whether or not it happens depends critically on fundamental adjustments of our societal architecture.
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Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If it is profitable to employ robots it is very likely more efficient. So almost by definition they increase production efficiency.
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Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The key point is whether there is political will to redistribute these benefits
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Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Assuming firms generally make tech investments when NPV positive, gains should be large enough. But not clear that the transfers take place.
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Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again - depends on the institutional structure
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Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree in principle, though compensation rarely occurs in practice and would require Nordic levels of income support and retraining.
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Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kaldor-Hicks: seriously?
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Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Higher productivity means a bigger pie
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Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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That compensation is possible in principle does not mean that it is likely to take place in practice.
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London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There will be substantial productivity gains but government needs to take action to destribute them across negatively affetced groups
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London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The question is not whether they could be compensated, but whether they will. Experience suggests not.
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Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Technology expands the economic pie, so definitely offers chances to share greater wealth -see background information here
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Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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