Question A:
If the federal minimum wage is raised gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020, the employment rate for low-wage US workers will be substantially lower than it would be under the status quo.
Responses
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
Question B:
Increasing the federal minimum wage gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020 would substantially increase aggregate output in the US economy.
Responses
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Low levels of minimum wage do not have significant negative employment effects, but the effects likely increase for higher levels.
|
||||
|
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
$15.00 will be high enough in the productivity distribution of workers in 2020 to substantially reduce jobs for the less skilled.
|
||||
|
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I don't think the evidence supports the bold prediction that employment will be substantially lower. Not impossible, but no strong evidence.
|
||||
|
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
On the margin Card & Krueger show that minimum wages have little impact. In contrast, in France the minimum wage eliminates labor segment.
|
||||
|
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Empirical studies disagree on the sign of the effect. Few of those concluding in favor of negative are consistent with "substantially."
|
||||
|
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Depends on how many exceptions are allowed. Most $15 city min wages exempt union members, for example.
|
||||
|
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I worry that it will be but we don't know enough. Firms may raise prices and the Fed may accommodate some inflation. But the change is large
|
||||
|
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Some will move to uncovered sectors and the underground economy, reducing (not reversing) the impact on actual employment.
|
||||
|
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A $15 minimum wage rise makes entry level / low wage jobs very expensive. It would move the U.S. to be more like France, Italy, etc.
|
||||
|
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
In rural areas this will have a significant effect, but in many cities it would not matter much. Teenager employment likely to drop too.
|
||||
|
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The total increase is so big that I'm not sure previous studies tell us very much.
|
||||
|
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Evidence is that it would be lower by perhaps 1 - 2 %. Lots of margins for adjustments.
|
||||
|
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Our elasticity estimates provide only local information about labor demand functions, giving little insight into such a large increase.
|
||||
|
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Certainly in states where the median wage is close to $15. Smaller increases would impact employment much less. -see background information here
|
||||
|
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Lower, probably; substantially lower, not clear at all.
|
||||
|
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Assuming inflation stays low. There is substantial evidence that labor demand slopes down, at least in the long run
|
||||
|
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Empirical evidence suggests the effects on employment would be modest.
|
||||
|
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Lower, yes. "Substantially"? Not clear. For small changes in min wage, there are small changes in employment. But this is a big change.
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If it had any net positive effect, it would likely be very modest.
|
||||
|
|
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It would generate extra demand provided that low-skilled citizen still find jobs and remain integrated in the society.
|
||||
|
|
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
|
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Because of labor market frictions and given the high propensity of low-income workers to consume, the effect is uncertain to me..
|
||||
|
|
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Small demand-side effects and uncertain supply-side effects make it hard to conclude in favor of "substantially" higher.
|
||||
|
|
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
|
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
|
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Does anybody have a mechanism in mind that would raise output? Stigler's argument that a min wage might not harm employment does not support
|
||||
|
|
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If employment not much affected and redistribution to workers demand could rise. But if sizable unemployment opposite could occur.
|
||||
|
|
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
|
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
France, Italy, etc. have done this -- making it expensive to hire entry level workers -- contributing to low growth and high unemployment.
|
||||
|
|
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Given ambiguous employment effects and the aggregate share of people getting raises, I doubt you get "substantially" more output.
|
||||
|
|
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Aggregate demand should be bolstered, but the wage increase is so big that it's hard to predict what would happen with much confidence
|
||||
|
|
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Probably slight lowering of potential output, but < 1%.
|
||||
|
|
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not a plausible stimulus package.
|
||||
|
|
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
|
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
|
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Again, any effects are likely to be small.
|
||||
|
|
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||