Work in Progress: Abstract: “Ban-the-Box” (BTB) policies restrict
employers from asking about applicants’ criminal histories on job applications
and are often presented as a means of reducing unemployment among black men,
who disproportionately have criminal records. However, withholding information
about criminal records could risk encouraging statistical discrimination:
employers may make assumptions about criminality based on the applicant’s race.
To investigate this possibility as well
as the effects of race and criminal records on employer callback rates, we sent
approximately 15,000 fictitious online job applications to employers in New
Jersey and New York City, in waves before and after each jurisdiction’s
adoption of BTB policies. Our causal effect
estimates are based on a triple-differences design, which exploits the fact
that many businesses’ applications did not ask about records even before BTB
and were thus unaffected by the law.
Our results confirm that criminal records are
a major barrier to employment, but they also support the concern that BTB
policies encourage statistical discrimination on the basis of race. Overall, white applicants received 23% more
callbacks than similar black applicants (38% more in New Jersey; 6% more in New
York City; we also find that the white advantage is much larger in whiter
neighborhoods). Employers that ask about
criminal records are 62% more likely to call back an applicant if he has no
record (45% in New Jersey; 78% in New York City)—an effect that BTB compliance
necessarily eliminates. However, we find that the race gap in callbacks grows
dramatically at the BTB-affected companies after the policy goes into effect. Before
BTB, white applicants to BTB-affected employers received about 7% more
callbacks than similar black applicants, but BTB increases this gap to 45%.
The Impact of Criminal Databases on Plea Bargaining (with Jennifer Doleac) Abstract: In recent decades, law enforcement agencies have created and expanded criminal databases of individuals convicted of particular offenses. Popular examples include sex offender registries and DNA databases. The intention of these policies is to increase the likelihood that convicted offenders are caught if they reoffend; their goals are to deter crime and quickly incapacitate serial offenders. However, their existence might also affect the legal process for those accused of qualifying crimes. In particular, defendants might actively charge-bargain to avoid inclusion in a database. This project seeks to understand how these databases affect the plea bargaining process, and how offenders weigh sentence length against inclusion in a criminal database. There is currently no empirical evidence on this topic. We use data from the State Court Processing Statistics, which include a representative sample of felony cases from large counties across the United States, for years 1990 to 2009. We will also use administrative data on the full universe of arrests or charges filed in at least three states. We use the timing of the creation and expansion of state registries and databases as natural experiments, to test the causal impact of database-eligibility on plea-bargaining outcomes. We will employ two empirical strategies: (1) compare individuals charged with the same, newly-qualifying offense before and after the law change, and (2) compare individuals charged with a qualifying offense to individuals charged with similar, non-qualifying offenses, in a difference-in-difference framework.
Counsel Quality and Client Match Effects (with Matthew Freedman and Emily Owens)Abstract: This paper studies how the quality of defense counsel and the interaction of client and counsel race and ethnicity affect criminal justice outcomes. We exploit the conditionally random assignment of clients to assigned counsel in one large jurisdiction in Texas together with detailed court records that allow us not only to follow individual cases through the criminal justice system, but also to track individual lawyers on different cases. Preliminary results suggest that, even after controlling for charge and defendant characteristics and including lawyer fixed effects, case outcomes for defendants are less favorable when attorneys are court appointed, implying that variation in lawyer effort across cases, rather than adverse selection in attorneys, is a central explanation for the worse outcomes in assigned counsel cases. Moreover, while white indigent defendants have similar case outcomes regardless of whether they are matched with assigned counsel of the same race, black indigent defendants have better and Hispanic indigent defendants worse outcomes when matched with assigned counsel of the same race/ethnicity.
Disaggregating the Returns to CollegeAbstract: The experience of post-secondary education in the United States can look very different across different students. Almost half of post-secondary students will start in community colleges; many will transfer and students may drop out or earn different degrees along the way. Even for students with the same degree outcome there can be considerable heterogeneity in the path taken to get there. I estimate the life-cycle private and public returns to the different post-secondary paths and sequential decisions made by the students using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79). My approach highlights both the benefits and the costs of different post-secondary choices, as well as taking account of the fact that wage premia are not constant over the life-cycle. I find positive, significant public and private returns for all paths through college. Significantly lower opportunity and direct costs for paths that involve community college make the internal returns to these paths high. Even for paths that lead to the same final degree, returns and present values are different due to different costs and earnings over the life-cycle.
Non-Cognitive Skills and CrimeAbstract: Early childhood interventions are one possible mechanism for reducing adult criminal participation - identifying the relationship between childhood skills and later crime is important for helping us understand where to intervene. There is an empirically established negative relationship between IQ and crime and education and crime, which implies one promising avenue for focusing interventions. However, emerging research in economics has resulted in a proliferation of studies that estimate the effect of various non-cognitive skills on outcomes such as labor participation, test scores, health, and migration -though, this research has yet to extend in any systematic way to criminal outcomes. To enhance our understanding of the effect of childhood skills and personality on criminal outcomes I use data from the CNLSY to estimate the effect of non-cognitive skills measured in adolescents on adult criminal participation and compare these effects to those of cognitive skills and educational attainment. I find that non-cognitive skills measured by externalizing and internalizing behavior as well as impulsivity and risk preference have important effects on criminal participation and that these effects are generally larger than those of cognitive skills.
Using Experiments to Screen for Social Programs: Theory and Empirical Evidence (with Amee Kamdar, Steven Levitt, and John List)Abstract: Screening individuals based on observables is standard practice among profit maximizing firms. Examples include price discrimination in product markets and screening devices used in hiring the best workers. In this study, we extend this notion to the realm of public policy, exploring whether and to what extent screening devices can be used to identify which individuals will derive the greatest benefit from social programs. Our approach makes use of theory-driven experiments. In addition, the study speaks to the recent debate concerning whether results from laboratory experiments generalize to outside domains. We develop a general theoretical approach that serves both as a tool for interpreting received experimental results as well as a guide to the design of future experiments.
Published and Forthcoming: Abstract: I use three separate datasets and designs to determine whether sex offender registries are effective. First, state-level panel data is used to determine whether sex offender registries or public access to them decrease the rate of rape and other sexual abuse. Second, a dataset which contains information on the subsequent arrests of sex offenders released from prison in 1994 in 15 states is used to determine whether registries reduce the recidivism rate of offenders required to register compared with the recidivism of those who do not. Finally, I combine data on locations of crimes in Washington, D.C., with data on locations of registered sex offenders to determine whether knowing the locations of sex offenders in a region helps predict the locations of sexual abuse. The results from all three datasets do not support the hypothesis that sex offender registries are effective tools for increasing public safety.
Abstract: Sex offender laws that target recidivism (e.g., community notification and residency restriction regimes) are premised—at least in part —on the idea that sex offender proximity and victimization risk are positively correlated. We examine this relationship by combining past and current address information of registered sex offenders (RSOs) with crime data from Baltimore County, Maryland, to study how crime rates vary across neighborhoods with different concentrations of resident RSOs. Contrary to the assumptions of policymakers and the public, we find that, all else equal, reported sex offense victimization risk is generally (although not uniformly) lower in neighborhoods where more RSOs live. To further probe the relationship between where RSOs live and where sex crime occurs, we consider whether public knowledge of the identity and proximity of RSOs may make offending in those areas more difficult for (or less attractive to) all potential sex offenders. We exploit the fact that Maryland’s registry became searchable via the internet during our sample period to investigate how laws that publicly identify RSOs may change the relationship between the residential concentration of RSOs and neighborhood victimization risk. Surprisingly, for some categories of sex crime, notification appears to increase the relative risk of victimization in neighborhoods with greater concentrations of RSOs.
Sex Offenses (with J.J. Prescott), in J. Backhaus (ed.) Encyclopedia of Law and Economics, Springer 2015
Other Articles and Reports:Post-Secondary Paths and Wages, 2012. Paper written for Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration Grant. Note most of the results are superseded by "Disaggregating the Returns to College" paper. |
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